Fantasy Basketball Rule №1
Waiver Wire Rule №1: More Minutes Does Not Make Bad Fantasy Players Good
The number one question Tim and I would receive as Fantasy Basketball Analysts is ‘is X player an add?’ after a rotation player gets injured. Obviously, each circumstance is different and when a team’s primary ball handler or scorer goes down there will be flow-on effects throughout the roster whilst teams adjust to make up for that missed production, but, how that relates to fantasy basketball is never quite as linear as you might think.
With the news that Aaron Gordon is out for 4–6 weeks with an ankle sprain, per the Athletic’s Shams Charania, we thought it would be a perfect time to use this as a case study to revisit the scenario of a key player going down and what it means for fantasy managers.
The Orlando Magic are currently suffering from a horrendous run of injuries, missing key personnel such as Markelle Fultz, Johnathan Isaac, Al-Farouq Aminu and former Rookie of the Year Michael Carter-Williams. The effect on this has been the inclusion of Dwayne Bacon and Gary Clark in the rotation. Nikola Vucevic, Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon are posting career highs in usage rate, with at least one of the three being involved in a ridiculous 85% of the teams plays.
When such a pivotal rotation piece is set to miss extended time, the obvious thought is that another player will simply step in and fill in for that productivity, but it turns out that this is rarely the case. A teams system is generally designed to enhance the talents of those within it, so unless you’re the ulta-low usage of the 2017–2020 Houston Rockets role players (who were never fantasy relevant anyway!) the thought of simply plugging and playing another piece of the rotation in the same spot isn’t an option.
Aaron Gordon is an uber-athletic point forward who can get to the bucket at will, score in the post, and facilitate a capable offense whilst still having a penchant for highlight reel plays on the defensive end. James Ennis, Gary Clark and Dwayne Bacon look to be the biggest winners minutes wise, but although they all have great flexibility at the defensive end they don’t have the offensive firepower to replicate what Aaron Gordon was providing for the Magic. So you know see where the problem lies. As is normally the case in these situations, all that happens is the go-to-guys pull out the do it yourself kit, and their usage sky-rockets.
Expect to see huge work-rates from Vucevic and Fournier, whilst Gordon misses some time, the latter of which I assume will take Gordon’s role as facilitator of the bench unit and could see a great leap in efficiency for Fournier as a playmaker. There are no adds to come out of the Gordon injury unless you’re desperate for 3’s and some defensive stats, in which Gary Clark may be able to help you, but don’t forget the golden rule.
More minutes does not make bad fantasy players good.
